Biden wins in 91% of model simulations
The map displays our predictions for the 50 states and DC. Use the buttons to toggle and show each state's influence on the electoral college, and to highlight competitive states. Click on a state to view an in-depth breakdown.
Chance of winning over time
We run our model at least once a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.
Electoral vote distribution
In our one million simulations, some scenarios played out more frequently than others. Today, our model's scenarios centered around 350 electoral votes for Biden and 188 electoral votes for Trump.