# Blog

### The Death of GOOFI?

Nov 11, 2022, 2:00 AM

IS SILLY THE SHARK TO GOOFI’S GUPPY? The Rise and Fall of GOOFI; A SILLY tale of love, betrayal, and murder.

### Polls Are Wrong: Cope

Nov 5, 2022, 2:41 AM

Pollsters SEETHE

### How precise are the win probabilities?

Nov 5, 2022, 1:22 AM

An analysis of how varying constants in the variance calculation affects the model results

### Exclude Bigmood?

Nov 5, 2022, 1:21 AM

Analyzing the effects of including and excluding Bigmood in our model

### Did Democrat meddling have an impact on Republican primaries?

Nov 4, 2022, 10:45 PM

After the 2020 presidential election, the Democratic Party spent millions of dollars boosting the campaigns of radical GOP candidates who were deemed as more beatable. Did it work?

### Comparing ORACLE to 538 🐦

Nov 4, 2022, 5:08 PM

In this post, we are putting our methodology to the test and seeing how a group of high-school students measure up to a multimillion dollar company :)

### D's get degrees

Nov 4, 2022, 4:28 PM

Exploring how different poll grades affect election predictions.

### MOIST: Midterm Oracle with Internet Search Trends

Nov 4, 2022, 1:39 PM

Factoring in Google search trends as a source of variance

### How does a Trump endorsement affect a candidate's likelihood of winning?

Nov 4, 2022, 12:16 PM

We analyze whether or not Trump-endorsed candidates perform differently than non-Trump-endorsed candidates

### Hindsight is 2018

Nov 3, 2022, 5:00 PM

Testing our correlation model on the 2018 Senate elections

### HEPA - Historical Error Poll Adjustment

Nov 3, 2022, 1:51 PM

A method of accounting polling biases

### Why is Blair ORACLE More Cautious Than Other Models?

Nov 3, 2022, 1:05 PM

Analyzing variance in popular models

### BIPBLEEP - Blair Index of Partisanship Based on Less Early Election Priority

Nov 3, 2022, 2:00 AM

A recalculation of BPI with a higher weight to recent election

### Is BIGMOOD a BIGLIE?

Nov 2, 2022, 5:00 PM

Considering the effect of BIGMOOD on governor races

### Weight a second: How does changing our poll weight formula affect our model's predictions?

Nov 2, 2022, 4:00 PM

An analysis of the effect of adjusting weight given to polls when combining polling averages with BPI

### Removing BPI and BABOON

Nov 1, 2022, 12:00 PM

What would happen if we only used poll data for our predictions?

### Welcome to ORACLE of Blair 2022

Oct 7, 2022, 12:52 PM

Modeling this year's senate & governor races