Analyzing the Effects of a Proportional Elector SystemOct. 27, 2020, 10:09 p.m.
An analysis of how allocating electors proportionally by popular vote within the states would change the election.
Good Polls and Bad PollsOct. 28, 2020, 1:47 p.m.
If we only used “A” rated polls, or “A” and “B” rated polls, does it impact the results of our model?
2016 vs. 2020 ModelsOct. 28, 2020, 10:11 p.m.
To what degree do the 2016 and 2020 student models differ in battleground states?
Oracle vs. FiveThirtyEight in the MidwestOct. 29, 2020, 9:55 a.m.
How does the Oracle compare to FiveThirtyEight in the MidWest?
Polling Methods do not Introduce Bias in Texas Predictive PollsOct. 29, 2020, 10:04 a.m.
An analysis of the statistical differences between internet and phone predictive polling results in Texas.
What Happened to the Lone Star State?Oct. 29, 2020, 12:57 p.m.
Texas has suddenly become a swing state. Why?
But What About 2016? An Analysis of Polling ErrorOct. 29, 2020, 1:02 p.m.
We looked at the data to see how the election would turn out if we had the same polling errors as 2016 and 2012.
Averaging Polls and Sampling DurationOct. 29, 2020, 1:14 p.m.
An analysis of how a poll's duration can affect the accuracy of the poll.
Obama vs. Trump Approval RatingsOct. 29, 2020, 1:37 p.m.
How Trump's approval ratings relate to Obama's and how they can be used to predict the outcome of the election.
Will Mail-in-ballots Swing the Election?Oct. 29, 2020, 1:48 p.m.
Predicted: Election night Trump win becomes Biden victory once mail-in-ballots are counted
Effect of Possible Third Party Votes on the ElectionOct. 29, 2020, 2:53 p.m.
A look at how third party votes affected the 2016 election and how they might make an impact on the 2020 election
Is Home State Advantage Real?Oct. 29, 2020, 4:49 p.m.
A rudimentary analysis of home state advantage in previous elections and how it may affect the 2020 election.
The By Week Z-Test: Origin and ComparisonOct. 29, 2020, 9:24 p.m.
A deeper dive into our new poll averaging method known as the by week z-test.
Comparing How Toss-up States Affect the Election in the FiveThirtyEight and ORACLE ModelsOct. 29, 2020, 9:48 p.m.
A look at what ORACLE predicts when Trump wins certain states and a comparison with the FiveThirtyEight predictions.
Analysis of Swing State PollingOct. 29, 2020, 10:34 p.m.
An analysis of polling errors in swing states based off previous RealClearPolitics polling data and election results.
Why Demographics Hurt TrumpOct. 30, 2020, 10:36 a.m.
Analyzing what happens to model predictions if demographics were omitted. Spoilers: Trump's win percentage increases by 4%.
The Cost of Voting, and Who Picks Up the TabOct. 30, 2020, 12:06 p.m.
Analyzing the impact of the Cost of Voting Index on our model & examining COVID's effect on the Cost of Voting Index.
The Variance ProblemOct. 30, 2020, 1:51 p.m.
A separate model in which we lowered state-by-state variance and changed the state correlation scheme ("Adding After the Fact") to new a scheme "Seeding Simulations."
How has Trump’s Positive COVID-19 Test Affected his Chances?Oct. 31, 2020, 6 a.m.
An analysis of how Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis and the Republican National Convention affected his chance of winning the election.
What about the Senate?Oct. 31, 2020, 11:37 a.m.
Relationship between the ORACLE’s predictions and polling averages in the 2020 Senate Elections
Analyzing the Relationship Between Cost of Voting and Partisan LeanNov. 1, 2020, 9:35 a.m.
Looking at whether raising cost of voting has historically benefitted the Republican presidential candidate
Very Varied Variances: State-by-State Comparison of Variances Between ORACLE and FiveThirtyEightNov. 1, 2020, 11:38 a.m.
A comparison of two models’ state variance data and the implications of differences between the models.
Oracle vs. FiveThirtyEight and The Economist in Sunbelt Swing StatesNov. 1, 2020, 4:48 p.m.
A look at the differences between predictions from the Oracle, 538, and The Economist in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Texas.
How Trump’s Approval Rating Has Changed Based On COVIDNov. 1, 2020, 9:47 p.m.
Analyzing the COVID Severity in States and Any Potential Relations to Trump's Approval Rating in That State
Does the Demographic Correlation Between States Affect Voting Trends?Nov. 1, 2020, 9:50 p.m.
A comparison of the voting trends between demographically correlated states.
How Does The Cost Of Voting Affect Our Prediction Of The Election?Nov. 2, 2020, noon
Does the Cost of Voting Index play a role in the election model?
How have Republicans shifted their views on Trump between 2016 and 2020?Nov. 2, 2020, 3:39 p.m.
We compared polls from 2016 to 2020 in Republican states to see if Trump's presidency has changed its place in polls and by how much.