Governors race

40.56Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Chris Jones39.7%10%
Sarah H. Sanders60.3%90%

About Arkansas

Arkansas is a landlocked state in the South Central United States, bordered by Missouri in the North, Tennessee and Mississipi in the East, and Texas and Oklahoma to the west. Arkansas is comprised of a mostly non-Hispanic white population, with this demographic describing 72.0% of the residents in Arkansas. It is also part of the Bible Belt and predominantly Protestant with 79% of its total population identifying as Christian.


Chris Jones (D)

Image of Chris Jones Source: Arkansas Money and Politics

Sarah Sanders (R)

Image of Sarah Sanders Source: Wikipedia

Chris Jones is a learned nuclear physicist and mathematician. His experience with politics comes from ministering and leading a nonprofit. His campaign has made promises to up education standards, increase internet access, government investment into small businesses, and supports women’s choice in abortions.

Sarah Sanders served as the 31st White House Secretary under President Donald Trump until 2019. She was an avid defender of the Trump administration and left in 2019. During her campaign, she promised anti-vaccination and anti-abortion policies, including exceptions with respect to rape and incest. She is widely expected to win the Arkansas gubernatorial election.


There were 5 primary Democratic candidates: Chris Jones, Anthony Bland, Jay Martin, James Russell, and Supha Xayprasith Mays.

There were 2 primary Republican candidates: Sarah Sanders and Doc Washburn.

Issues & controversies

Both candidates have made their stance on abortion very clear.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

No polls to display.