Governors race

48.72Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Katie Hobbs48.3%40%
Kari Lake51.7%60%

About Arizona

Arizona became the forty-eighth state in 1912 after being purchased from Mexico in 1853. It has three main regions being the northwestern Colorado Plateau, a transition mountainous region, and the southern basin, where most major cities reside. Being on the border, Arizona has an incredibly high proportion of Hispanics, nearly 31.7%.Phoenix, Arizona's capital, has been rated the hottest city in America.


Katie Hobbs (D)

Image of Katie Hobbs Source: Arizona Secretary of State

Kari Lake (R)

Image of Kari Lake Source: Ballotpedia

Katie Hobbs (D) is the Arizona Secretary of State. She assumed office on January 7, 2019. Her current term ends on January 2, 2023. Hobbs is a former Democratic member of the Arizona State Senate, representing District 24 from 2013 to 2019. Hobbs served as state Senate minority leader from 2015 to 2019. Her campaign goals include improving protecting Arizona’s natural resources, upgrading infrastructure, and pushing rights for women and other underrepresented groups in government and STEM.

Kari Lake (R) is a former Fox10 news anchor. Lake is endorsed by Trump. She is staunchly anti-progressive, taking a stand against cancel-culture and critical race theory. She is endorsed by Donald Trump, and has promoted claims that the 2020 election was false. She is running in place of incumbent Doug Ducey, who has reached his term limit.


Hobbs won the Democratic primary with 73.8% of the vote.

Lake won a closely contested Republican primary with 46.8% of the vote; the second place candidate had 44%.

Issues & controversies

Kari Lake considers abortion to be “the ultimate sin”, while Katie Hobbs is pro-choice and intends to improve access to reproductive healthcare.

Both Lake and Hobbs intend to protect Arizona’s border from criminal activity and trafficking, and both oppose the actions recently taken by various politicians to send immigrants to places such as Martha’s Vineyard. Hobbs, however, puts an emphasis on preventing humanitarian crises at the border, while Lake takes a more militant approach, referring to the situation as “an invasion”.

Lake has faced controversy for spreading COVID-19 misinformation and supporting an antisemitic Senate candidate. She has been labeled a “conspiracy theorist” by Hobbs, who refused to debate her.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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