Governors race

44.06Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Charlie Crist44.4%16%
Ron DeSantis55.6%84%

About Florida

Florida is a peninsula in the South Eastern United States, bordered by Georgia and Alabama in the north. Florida is estimated to be comprised of a mostly non-Hispanic white population, with this demographic describing 76.9% of the residents in Florida. At the endpoint of the so-called Bible Belt, it's estimated that 70% of Floridians identify as Christian.


Charlie Crist (D)

Image of Charlie Crist Source: Courtesy of Wikipedia

Ron DeSantis (R)

Image of Ron DeSantis Source: Courtesy of Wikipedia

Charlie Crist served as the U.S. Representative from Florida’s 13th congressional district from 2017 to 2022, but resigned to begin his gubernatorial campaign. This election, Crist promises to vote against all anti-choice legislation, prohibit state agencies from infringing on Roe v. Wade, strengthen agricultural restrictions regarding runoff, and ban the sale of assault weapons.

Ron DeSantis has served as the governor of Florida since 2019 and is a founding member of the Freedom Caucus -- a congressional caucus consisting of conservative Republican members of the House of Representatives. Along with being an outspoken ally of Trump, he has strongly opposed Covid-19 restrictions such as mask mandates and stay-at-home orders throughout the course of the pandemic. In terms of policy, DeSantis opposes federal education programs and gun control, does not believe in climate change, and is anti-abortion.


There were 4 primary Democratic candidates: Charlie Crist, Nikki Fried, Cadance Daniel, Robert Willis

There was no Republican primary election.

Issues & controversies

The two candidates are polarized on essentially every controversial issue there is.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

No polls to display.