Governors race

46.30Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Stacey Abrams46.0%22%
Brian Kemp54.0%78%

About Georgia

The 6th largest state by population, Georgia has historically voted republican but in recent times Georgia has become a swing state. Over the last twenty years, Georgia's white population has decreased from 71% to 60%. Nearly six in every ten of Georgia's population resides in its largest city, Atlanta, and its surrounding metropolitan area, which is 50% black. Georgia is known for its peach cobbler and for being the first state to lower the legal voting age from 21 to 18 under the slogan "Old enough to fight, old enough to vote" following the onset of World War II.


Stacey Abrams (D)

Image of Stacey Abrams Source: Washington Post

Brian Kemp (R)

Image of Brian Kemp Source: Wikipedia

Stacey Abrams (D) was a member of the Georgia House of Representatives, representing District 89, from 2007 to 2017, and also served as House minority leader from 2011 to 2017. In the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election, Abrams became the Democratic nominee and thus the first African-American female major-party gubernatorial nominee in the United States. During the election, she was endorsed by Bernie Sanders and former president Barack Obama. Abrams also founded Fair Fight Action, an organization that addresses voter suppression, in 2018. She has been praised for playing an important role in Biden’s win in 2020, due to the organization’s influence on voter turnout in Georgia and twenty other crucial states. In late 2021, Abrams announced she would run again for governor. She ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. Abrams’s campaign has emphasized abortion rights and stricter gun regulations.

Brian Kemp’s (R) political career started in 2003, in the Georgia State Senate, where he represented District 46 until 2007. Then, from 2010 to 2018, he served as the 27th secretary of state of Georgia. Kemp ran in the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election and won. During the election, Kemp embraced Trump-like policies and also received an endorsement from former President Donald Trump at the request of Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue. During the pandemic, Kemp opposed mask mandates and stay-at-home orders as governor. He also prohibited districts from implementing stricter public health measures than the state itself. Following the 2020 presidential election, Kemp faced criticism from Trump because he refused to overturn the results of the election in Georgia. Kemp is running for reelection in the 2022 gubernatorial election. During the primaries, Trump continued to attack him and endorsed former U.S. senator David Perdue instead. However, Kemp still won by a landslide. A key issue of Kemp’s campaign is the economy, with him promising a state income tax rebate and a state property tax break for Georgians.


Stacey Abrams ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Brian Kemp faced a primary challenge from former U.S. Senator David Perdue, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump after Kemp refused to overturn the 2020 Presidential election results in Georgia. Polling showed a competitive race, but after Kemp signed conservative legislation, he managed to raise his position among voters, and on election day, he won by a landslide.

Issues & controversies


Kemp proposes the $1 Billion Tax Rebate, which will return money to Georgians, and the Georgia Homeowner Rebate, which will save the average homeowner in Georgia between 15 and 25 percent on their local property tax bill next year.

Abrams wants to create an earned income tax credit for Georgia, increase disability protections, close the skills gap and increase apprenticeships, and invest heavily in small business financing programs.


Kemp will focus on addressing learning loss caused by the COVID-19 pandemic by proposing $25 million for a Learning Loss Opportunity Scholarship Grant. He will also work on increasing the educator and school counselor workforce by starting a grant program that will help people with the certification costs of becoming a teacher.

Abrams says that as governor she will raise the statewide minimum teacher wage by more than $10k. She will also work on increasing the number of teachers entering the profession by developing new teacher preparation programs to expand access to teaching.

Gun Policies:

As governor, Kemp signed a law allowing Georgians to carry handguns in public without a license or background check.

As governor, Abrams will require gun owners to apply for a license to carry concealed weapons in public. She will also support universal background checks and limit access to guns for perpetrators of domestic violence and stalking.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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