Governors race

69.17Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Josh Green69.2%100%
Duke Aiona30.8%0%

About Hawaii

Hawaii is a group of volcanic islands in the central Pacific Ocean, becoming the 50th U.S. state in 1959. Hawaii has a strong economy, with diversified agriculture and manufacturing, and also serves as an important location for research and development in oceanography, geophysics, astronomy, and biomedicine. Of the 50 U.S. states, Hawaii is the 8th smallest in land area and 11th least populous, but ranks 13th in population density and is one of the country's most diverse states, serving as a unique melting pot of North American and East Asian cultures. Because of its large native population, Hawaii has voted strongly Democratic in all elections since 1960, except for two.


Joshua Green (D)

Image of Joshua Green Source: State of Hawaii

Duke Aiona (R)

Image of Duke Aiona Source: Wikipedia

Joshua Green is currently Hawaii's 14th lieutenant governor since 2018. Green has a medical background and served as an ER doctor and a family physician prior to taking office, serving, at times as the only physician of underserved rural Hawaiian communities.

Duke Aiona has a background in the judicial system, previously serving as a jurist in the Hawaii Drug Court and an attourney for private practice. Entering politics in 2002, Aiona served as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii from 2002-2006, and was defeated in his bids for Governor in 2010 and 2014.


Joshua Green won the Democratic primary election with 63.5% of the vote, defeating Vicky Cayetano with a margin of 42.3 percentage points or 93,452 votes.

Duke Aiona won the Republican primary election with 51.1% of the vote, defeating BJ Penn with a margin of 26.2 percentage points or 16,069 votes.

Issues & controversies

Abortion is a key topic for Green, with the Democratic candidate underscoring that he will take action to protect women's health rights. Aiona assures that the topic of abortion rights can only be handled by the Democratic-dominated legislative branch and won't change anytime soon. Aiona is focused on addressing cost of living and inflation.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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