Governors race

40.99Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Deidre DeJear41.5%11%
Kim Reynolds58.5%89%

About Iowa

Bordered by both the Mississippi River and the Missouri River, Iowa is home to over 3.15 million people. Approximately 89% of Iowa’s population are White, almost 4% are Black, and 2.5% are Asian, with the rest of the population being mixed or of other races. 92% of the state’s 25 year old and older population have graduated High School, and 29% of the state’s 25 year old and older population have a Bachelor’s degree or higher. A large percentage of the state is educated, contributing to the reason that Iowa has the highest literacy rate of any state.


Deidre Dejear (D)

Image of Deidre Dejear Source: [Ballotpedia]

Kim Reynolds (R)

Image of Kim Reynolds Source: Ballotpedia

Diedre DeJear, an outstanding figure for the NAACP, graduated and earned a B.A. in journalism from Drake University in 2008, which led to her owning Caleo Enterprises and working as a consultant as the African American vote director of Obama for America Iowa. Diedre DeJear’s maverick position is unclear. While many of her claimed changes are more libertarian than Democrat views, she is endorsed by Fred Hubbel who has much more establishment views and stays close to the DNC. But, Diedre DeJear is also endorsed by the NARAL Pro-Choice Group, CCI Action, and the Iowa Unity Coalition.

Kim Reynolds previously served four terms as a Clarke County treasurer and in the Iowa senate from 2009 to 2010. She won full-term governor in 2018. A staunch supporter of Donald Trump, she strongly advocated for her political views such as bans on same-sex marriage and could be seen at Republican conventions. A representing prominent female leader, Reynolds was selected to deliver the Republican response to President Bidens State of the Union address. Trump formally endorsed Reynolds days before the June 7 primaries.


Deidre DeJear was uncontested in the Democratic primaries.

Kim Reynolds was uncontested in the Republican primaries.

Issues & controversies

Abortion rights play a key role in the debates between the political parties. DeJear has more liberal views as she discusses developing Iowa to be more inclusive for POC and LGBTQ+ people. DeJear is an activist and small business owner and would be Iowa’s first Black statewide officeholder if elected. Other hot-topic issues such as immigration, inflation, and rising gas prices are less contested. Reynolds had already passed legislation regarding gun control, specifically, handgun carry without a constitutional carry permit. Similar advocacy and legislation include advocacy against same-sex marriage and support through vetoes of challenged Trump policies related to immigration, asylum, abortion, birth control, environmental deregulation, gun policy, and LGBTQ+ rights. Reynolds condemned the January 6 raid on the Capitol. In May 2018, Reynolds signed a “fetal heartbeat bill” which created one of the most restrictive abortion bans.

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Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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