Governors race

34.36Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Stephen Heidt34.4%1%
Brad Little65.6%99%

About Idaho

Idaho is a northwestern U.S. state known for mountainous landscapes, and vast swaths of protected wilderness and outdoor recreation areas. It's an important agricultural state, producing nearly one-third of the potatoes grown in the United States. The state is a primarly red state, having a purely Republican senate since 1981. Idaho has a multitude of problems ranging from poor mental health care to a flawed education system. The goal of these candidates is to improve the living situation in their state.


Stephen Heidt (D)

Image of Stephen Heidt Source: Idaho Democratic Party

Brad Little (R)

Image of Brad Little Source:

Stephen Heidt is a teacher working in Idaho's prison system, with no prior political experience. Heidt earned a bachelor's degree in political science from Brigham Young University at Provo in 1986 and a bachelor's degree in history from Eastern Washington University in 1990. He is a veteran of the U.S. Army National Guard.

Brad Little has been governor of Idaho since 2019. Before his term, he served as the Lieutenant Governor and as a state senator. He received a B.S. in agribusiness from the University of Idaho in 1977 and is a former governor.


Stephen Heidt ran unopposed for the Democratic ticket. However, he garnered only 66% of the vote, with a substantial portion of voters choosing write-in candidates.

Little handily defeated Trump-backed Lieutenant Governor Janice McGeachin in the Republican primary, garnering 60.9% of the vote.

Issues & controversies

Both candidates chose platforms that reflect the traditional values of their respective party. Little boasts about his track record of deregulation and promises to bring law and order to stop a recent rise in drugs. He is not endorsed by Trump. Heidt supports the legalization of marijuana, increased healthcare programs, and has recently begun talking more about abortion rights. There are no consequential third-parties.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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