Governors race

59.13Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
J.B. Pritzker59.0%89%
Darren Bailey41.0%11%

About Illinois

In 2021, 60% of residents of Illinois identified as White/non-hispanic. 18% identified as Hispanic/Latino, 14.1% identified as Black, 5.9% identified as Asian, 0.2% as Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, and 1.8% as multiracial. As for political leanings, 48% identified as Democratic/Democratic leaning, 33% identified as Republican/Republican leaning, and 19% identified as no leaning. The notable candidates for the Illinois U.S. Senate are incumbent Tammy Duckworth and Republican candidate Kathy Salvi. The first McDonalds was built in Des Plaines, Illinois. In the northeast it has Chicago, with farmland and small cities in the north and center, and natural resources suhc as petroleum and timber in the south. Historically, Illinois has been a swing state, however in recent elections it has become a solid blue state with the Demographic party prevailing in the more urban areas and the Republicans in the more rural ones.


J. B. Pritzker (D)

Image of J. B. Pritzker Source:

Darren Bailey (R)

Image of Darren Bailey Source: WBEZChicago

The Democratic incumbent, J. B. Pritzker, defeated incumbent Bruce Rauner in 2018 54.5 to 38.8. Pritzker plans to improve affordable healthcare, as well as to protect net neutrality.

“As governor, I will ensure that all internet traffic is treated equally so that everyone can continue to use the internet to grow their businesses, further their education, and enjoy the freedom of expression. JB will fight to protect net neutrality“

Darren Bailey is the Trump-endorsed conservative Republican candidate. A senator for Illinois, he is a far-right politician who once was removed from an Illinois House session by an 81-27 vote for not wearing a mast. Bailey is a firm pro-lifer.

“Darren believes in the sanctity of life, and as a state legislator, voted against the extreme overhaul and expansion of abortion access in Illinois. Darren opposes state and taxpayer funding of abortions. As Governor, he will continue to defend innocent life”


Pritzker is the incumbent, so he won the primaries with 92.8% of the votes.

As the Trump-endorsed candidate, Bailey also won his primaries with a 57.2% lead.

Issues & controversies

One of the key issues of the race is the Safe-T Act, a criminal justice reform law which will eliminate cash bail. Pritzker champions the law while Bailey is calling for its repeal. Another is abortion access: after Roe v. Wade was overturned, Pritzker is working to expand access while Bailey is a firm pro-lifer.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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