Governors race

65.25Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Maura Healey65.0%96%
Geoff Diehl35.0%4%

About Massachusetts

Historically, Massachusetts has consistently leaned liberal and voted Democratic. Compared to other states in the surrounding New England area, Massachusetts is generally more diverse. It was also the first state to legalize same-sex marriage. Their economy today mostly depends on technology research and tourism. With a GDP per capita of nearly $100,000, third highest in the nation, Massachusetts economically speaking is pretty well off. The current incumbent, Charlie Baker, has served two terms and is not seeking re-election. The two nominated candidates are Geoff Diehl (R) and Maura Healey (D).


Geoff Diehl (R)

Image of Geoff Diehl Source: NewBostonPost

Maura Healey has been serving as the Massachusetts Attorney General since 2014. She has a history of lawsuits against organizations such as the Trump organization or ExxonMobil. Her endorsements include Elizabeth Warren, as well as a number of other state representatives. If elected, she would be Massachusetts' first elected woman governor and the first openly lesbian governor in US history.

Geoff Diehl has previously served in the House of Representatives for Massachusetts, from 2011 to 2019. In 2018, he ran for a Massachusetts Senate seat, but lost to the incumbent Elizabeth Warren. He has long-term ties with and is endorsed by Trump.


Healey was virtually unopposed in the Democratic primaries, as her opponent unofficially withdrew but remained on the ballot. She won with 85% of the vote.

The Republican primaries were fairly close, with Diehl winning against his opponent Chris Doughty 55.5% to 44.5%. This close result could be explained by the fact that Diehl’s stances are more extreme than those of Doughty and of previous Republican candidates: Massachusetts generally prefers to nominate moderate Republican candidates to appeal to the overall liberal-leaning population.

Issues & controversies

Big issues for this election include the increasing unaffordability of living in Massachusetts, the housing crisis, small business, climate change and energy production, higher quality education, and healthcare/public infrastructure. Diehl’s campaign also has a focus on safety, aiming to reduce crime rates and increase school safety, and on defending individual freedom, being in favor of the 2nd Amendment and against certain vaccine mandates. Healey’s campaign also focuses on treatment of immigrants, criminal justice reform, and reproductive and LGBTQ+ rights.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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