Governors race

68.22Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Wes Moore65.2%98%
Dan Cox34.8%2%

About Maryland

Maryland is a Mid-Atlantic bordering both the Atlantic Ocean and Chespeake Bay. In 2021, 49% of residents of Maryland identified as White/non-hispanic. 11.1% identified as Hispanic/Latino, 30.2% identified as Black, 6.8% identified as Asian, 0.2% as Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, and 2.6% as multiracial. As for political leanings, 55% identified as Democratic/Democratic leaning, 31% identified as Republican/Republican leaning, and 14% identified as no leaning.


Wes Moore (D)

Image of Wes Moore Source: Baltimore Sun

Dan Cox (R)

Image of Dan Cox Source: WYPR

Wes Moore is a bestselling author in addition to serving in the United States Army from 1998 to 2006 and working to alleviate poverty in New York as the CEO of the Robin Hood Foundation. He has not previously served in public office, even expressing a disinterest in doing so. Obviously he has recently reversed this stance.

Dan Cox is a Trump endorsed Republican who managed to beat previous governor, Larry Hogan’s, cabinet member, Kelly Schulz, in the Republican primary election. He previously ran to represent Maryland’s eighth congressional district in the House of Representatives, but was defeated by Democrat Jamie Raskin. After this defeat he ran for the Maryland House of Delegates where he has served since 2019.


The Democratic primary was very contested, featuring ten candidates. The three frontrunners were Wes Moore, Tom Perez, and Peter Franchot. Wes Moore won with 33.8% of the vote.

The Republican primary was less competitive with only four candidates and two frontrunners, Dan Cox and Kelly Schulz. Kelly Schulz was a cabinate member of previous governor Larry Hogan.

Issues & controversies

Wes Moore is running on a campaign platform of investing heavily into combating climate change, increasing transit, reforming education, and improving equity by increasing the minimum wage and expanding affordable housing and healthcare programs. Meanwhile, Dan Cox wants to reduce gun control while limiting abortions and immigration.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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