Governors race

52.75Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Gretchen Whitmer52.7%65%
Tudor M. Dixon47.3%35%

About Michigan

Michigan is located in the Midwest, split in half by the Great Lakes. It touts the car capital of the world, Detroit. 70% white and with a significant Black or African American population (14%), Michigan is considered a Democratic-leaning swing state.


Gretchen Whitmer (D)

Image of Gretchen Whitmer Source: Michigan.gov

Tudor Dixon (R)

Image of Tudor Dixon Source: NPR

Gretchen Whitmer is the incumbent Democratic Governor of Michigan. Originally a lawyer, Whitmer served in the Michigan house of representatives from 2001 to 2006 , and in the Michigan senate from 2006 to 2015. In 2016, she returned to the court to serve as the Ingham County prosecutor. In 2018, Whitmer won in the Michigan gubernatorial race, winning all 83 counties in the Democratic primaries, and winning the final election by nearly a 10-point margin. Whitmer describes herself as a progressive Democrat, stating that she can work with state legislators from different political perspectives.

Tudor Dixon is a conservative political commentator and former steel saleswoman. She was born in Illinois and has lived in Michigan for 20 years. She is endorsed by Trump and former secretary of state Betsy DeVos.


Whitmer was the only Democratic primary candidate and advanced with 100% of the Democratic primary vote.

Dixon won the Republican primary candidate with 38.7% of the Republican primary vote.

Issues & controversies

Whitmer is reiterating what she’s done in the past and will be focusing on small business relief, opening more job opportunities, better Wi-Fi access, reproductive rights, less crimes, and improving infrastructure. Dixon is pro-life and strongly supports the 2nd Amendment. She wants to focus on increasing the amount of jobs, improving school, handling crime and public safety. She also wants to improve infrastructure like roads, increase business, and reduce income tax. In early May 2020, Whitmer announced she would be extending the stay-at-home mandate until May 15, 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In response, gun-armed protestors rallied at the Michigan state capitol building. Later in October 2020, it was revealed that a group was planning to kidnap Whitmer, with the goal of inciting a national rebellion in anticipation of the 2020 presidential election. The plan was unsuccessful, and two men were recently convicted for the planned kidnapping. Dixon has since joked about the incident on multiple occasions during her campaign. Overall, Dixon is very right-wing and Trump-endorsed. She opposes abortion, and when asked about underage rape victims has spoken of the “bond” and “healing” from birth. For Michigan voters, education is a key issue on the ballot. Dixon has voiced support for the Opportunity Scholarship program, which was pushed by former Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos but vetoed by Whitmer.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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