Governors race

55.65Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Tim Walz55.5%75%
Scott Jensen44.5%25%

About Minnesota

Minnesota is a large state in the upper midwest of the US, originally inhabited by the Dakota and Ojibwe people. Minnesota has its capital in St. Paul with more than 60% of its population living in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area, home of the Mall of America. Minnesota has historically voted DFL, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, with currently both senators and the governor members of the party. The DFL is nationally affiliated with the Democratic Party.


Tim Walz (D)

Image of Tim Walz Source: Wikipedia

Scott Jensen (R)

Image of Scott Jensen Source: Wikipedia

The current incumbent governor is Tim Walz, a member of the DFL, who has been in office since 2007.

Walz is challenged by Republican Scott Jensen, who was a member of the Minnesota Senate from 2017-2021.


Being the incumbent governor, Walz easily won the Democratic primary, winning more than 96% of the vote.

Jensen easily won the Republican primary, winning just over 90% of the vote.

Issues & controversies

Walz is pro-choice, and issued an executive order that supported those in other states seeking an abortion in Minnesota. Walz supports police reform, although he has increased funding for local law enforcement. He has enacted environmentally friendly policies, including the Clean Car rule, which aims to bring more fuel-efficient cars to Minnesota. He is also “pushing for 100% of Minnesota’s electricity to come from renewable energy by the year 2040. ” Under Walz, Minnesota is fifth in the nation in job growth and the lowest in unemployment. Jensen is strongly pro-life, stating early in his campaign he would “try to ban abortion.” He also favors increased law enforcement, active use of the national guard, and harsher penalties for those convicted of violent crimes. Jensen has stated he would repeal the Clean Car rule. For the economy, Jensen favors decreased government spending and would like to reduce gas prices.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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