New Hampshire

Governors race

41.65Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Tom Sherman42.3%13%
Chris Sununu57.7%87%

About New Hampshire

New Hampshire is a state in New England, with a combination of wilderness and a townlife nearby law Mt. Washington, the White Mountains, and the Appalachian Trail. New Hampshire is known for its many lakes, skiing, and beautiful landscapes. It's a tiny state, as it's the fifth smallest by area and tenth smallest by population. The population is 93% white, and party control switches between Democrats and Republicans quite often.


Tom Sherman (D)

Image of Tom Sherman Source: WMUR

Chris Sununu (R)

Image of Chris Sununu Source: WMUR

Tom Sherman has previously won the elections for State Senate in District 24 in both 2019 and 2020. His views generally align with the more progressive ideals of the Democratic party. For most issues in the race, both Sherman and Sununu take predictable stances.

The governor, since 2017, has been the incumbent Republican Chris Sununu. Chris Sununu is not a Trump-endorsed candidate; as a matter of fact, Trump’s former campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, claimed to look for a “challenger” to dethrone Chris Sununu of his position. He doesn’t stray far from the primary principles of the Republican party, although few of his decisions have been controversial; for example, he recently rejected a run for the 2022 Senate in order to pursue a fourth term as governor, a decision not foreseen by those in Washington. Chris Sununu is also relatively popular as he is a more moderate candidate; for example, he supported access to medical marijuana, which is uncommon for a politician of his political affiliation.


Tom Sherman won the democratic primaries uncontested.

The Republican primaries were not hotly contested, as Chris Sununu won with 79% of the vote (78,274 votes in total). It is worth noting that Sununu in 2020 received the most ever votes for a candidate in New Hampshire’s history, and his support hasn’t shown significant signs of slowing down.

Issues & controversies

One of the issues in the race regards health-related issues such as abortion. Tom Sherman has a heavy focus on medical issues (e.g. pricing transparency), as a result of his background as physician and his involvement with the Health and Human Services Committee as a senator. Chris Sununu has claimed to be pro-choice, although he also enacted the first modern day abortion ban. He's been accused of being a "flip-flop" on this issue, which doesn't go down well with supporters.

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Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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