New Mexico

Governors race

53.01Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Michelle L. Grisham53.4%67%
Mark V. Ronchetti46.6%33%

About New Mexico

New Mexico is a large state (the fifth largest state in the US, to be exact) in the American Southwest. Its capital is Santa Fe, and it is part of the Four Corners region with Colorado, Utah, and Arizona. New Mexico has a low population density, but it is well known for its vast desert and mountain landscapes. Despite being a more rural state, New Mexico has historically voted Democratic.


Michelle Lujan Grisham (D)

Image of DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE Source: Ballotpedia

Mark Ronchetti (R)

Image of REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE Source: Ballotpedia

The current incumbent governor is Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham. Prior to becoming Governor, Grisham attended the New Mexico School of Law and owned a consulting firm for 9 years.

Grisham’s opponent is Republican Mark Ronchetti. Before starting his political career, he was the chief meteorologist at CBS and FOX in Albuquerque.


Michelle Lujan Grisham is the incumbent, so she advanced from the Democratic primary election.

In the Republican primary election, Mark Ronchetti ran against five other republican candidates and won a whopping 59.9% of the vote.

Issues & controversies

Grisham is pro-choice, and she recently reversed a state abortion ban that had been dormant due to Roe v. Wade. She also supports increased funding in healthcare and education, and she has also advocated against anti-immigrant policies. Ronchetti is a pro-life advocate, though he does support abortions up to 15 weeks after conception. He also seeks to make borders and cities safer, and advocates for increased funding in law enforcement as well as upholding Second Amendment rights. Ronchetti supports reform and increased funding in the education system, and argues that improving New Mexico’s education system will reduce its 19.1% poverty rate (the third highest in the country).

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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