Governors race

48.60Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Steve Sisolak48.7%43%
Joe Lombardo51.3%57%

About Nevada

Nevada has a population of 2,972,382 and covers 109,859 square miles. Nevada has a high proportion of White and Hispanic/Lantios with nearly 65.6% and 28.7% respectively. Around 86.7% of Nevada's population has graduated high school and 24.7% college.


Steve Sisolak (D)

Image of Steve Sisolak Source:

Joe Lombardo (R)

Image of Joe Lombardo Source:

The Democratic incumbent, Sisolak started his career of service by serving on the Nevada Board of Regents for 10 years. Education remains a top priority for Sisolak as governor. He was then elected to be the chairman of the Clark County Commission. His goal is to invest in education, create jobs by diversifying the economy, and guaranteeing quality, affordable health care for all. He is endorsed by numerous organizations including Planned Parenthood and the Natural Resources Defense Council. He is also endorsed by the labor unions Nevada AFL-CIO and United Auto Workers.

Lombardo started his service to others in the Army and National Guard. He then rose through the ranks of the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department (LVMPD) and was elected as Sheriff of Clark County, Nevada in 2014. He intends to further his public service and represent, protect, and serve the entire state of Nevada. Lombardo is endorsed by Donald Trump, Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley. The governors of Virginia, Glenn Youngkin, and of Iowa, Kim Reynolds also endorse him.


In the Democratic primary, there were two main candidates; Sisolak eliminated Tom Collins by a huge margin. Sisolak with 89.3% of the votes and Collins with only 7.1%.

In the Republican primary, there were numerous candidates, but the ones of serious interest were Lombardo and Joey Gilbert. Lombardo still won by a sizable margin; Lombardo with 36.3% of the votes and Gilbert with 27.1%.

Issues & controversies

Some of the issues addressed in this race are abortion and gun control. Both Sisolak and Lombardo agree to support abortion and contraceptive access, although Lombardo caveats his support on popular decision. However there is a major divergence on gun control. Sisolak is a moderate democrat in favor of requiring background checks and such, while Lombardo is against almost any form of gun control, including being in favor of ghost guns. Sisolak focuses on climate change, Lombardo focuses on border security. Both say they won’t raise taxes.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

No polls to display.