New York

Governors race

53.77Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Kathy C. Hochul54.6%76%
Lee M. Zeldin45.4%24%

About New York

New York is situated on the East Coast, with water covering 36.4% of its surface area. It contains New York City, the most populous city in the United States, and home to the highest number of billionaires of any city in the world.


Kathy Hochul (D)

Image of Kathy Hochul Source: Ballotpedia

Lee Zeldin (R)

Image of Lee Zeldin Source: Ballotpedia

Hochul assumed office on August 24, 2021 after the then-Governor Andrew Cuomo resigned amid allegations of sexual harrassment. Hochul ran on a joint ticket with Cuomo (D), in 2014 and 2018. She served as New York’s Lieutenant Governor before that, and in the U.S. House from 2011 to 2012. Hochul is the first female Governor of New York. She is the nominee for both the Democratic and the Working Families parties.

Zeldin currently represents New York’s 1st Congressional District in the U.S. House. He has proposed several bills that passed in the House. Zeldin previously served on the New York state senate from 2010 to 2014. He is the nominee for both the Republican and Conservative parties. He is committed to campaigning for Donald Trump.


Kathy Hochul advanced from the Democratic primary with 514,802 votes, which was 67.3% of the 764,385 total votes.

Lee Zelda advanced from the Republican primary with 146,624 votes, which was 43.1% of the 340,281 total votes.

Issues & controversies

Hochul is pro-choice, while Zeldin is pro-life and saw the overturning of Roe v. Wade as a “victory for life, for family, for the Constitution, and for federalism.”

Both candidates believe in climate change, with Hochul especially putting an emphasis on funding renewable energy. Zeldin believed in the principles behind the Paris agreement, but did not vote to support it because he felt that the other countries involved were not pulling their own weight.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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