|Candidate||Predicted Vote %||Win Prob.|
Ohio is a constituent state on the northeastern edge of the Midwest. Its Southern portions contain some of Appalachia.
Nan Whaley (D)
Richard DeWine (R)
Whaley has been on the Dayton City Commission from 2005-2013, and was the Dayton City Mayor from 2014-2022.
DeWine has been the Ohio State Senator from 1981-1982, Ohio Senator from 1995-2007, Attorney General of Ohio from 2011-2019, and Governor from 2019-present. Because of facing backlash from Republicans for implementing strict COVID-19 restrictions, such as a stay at home order and mask mandates, he was challenged by Jim Renacci (R) for the Republican primaries. This was the first incumbent Ohio governor to face a primary challenger since Michael Disalle in 1962. At first Renacci was winning, but then DeWine took a lead by attacking President Joe Biden's policies and signing Constitutional carry into law.
Nan Whaley (D) won against John Cranley 65% to 35%.
Richard DeWine (R) won against Jim Renacci, Joe Blystone, and Ron Hood 48.1% to 28% to 21.8% to 2.1%.
Issues & controversies
Ohio nuclear bribery scandal, where FirstEnergy, an electric utility company, paid millions in bribes to Republican legislators to develop legislation favorable to them, which was signed by DeWine. Since The US Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade gave power to the states, many abortion-rights supporters, especially women, voted against Republicans such as DeWine.
Chance of winning over time
We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.
Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.
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