Governors race

47.41Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Joy Hofmeister45.8%31%
Kevin Stitt54.2%69%

About Oklahoma

Oklahoma is a notoriously red state with deep roots in Conservatism and ties to the Republican party. In this race, incumbent governor Kevin Stitt (R) tries to run for reelection against Joy Hofmeister (D) in a clash on education-spending and teacher-union rights.


Joy Hofmeister (D)

Image of Joy Hofmeister Source: Oklahoma State Department of Education](https://sde.ok.gov/superintendent)

Kevin Stitt (R)

Image of Kevin Stitt Source: National Governors Association

Joy Hofmeister, Superintendent of Public Instruction in Oklahoma, is attempting to overthrow Kevin Stitt in a bid to become governor. She is the mastermind behind the “Oklahoma Edge” which is a 218-page strategic plan to meet specific Oklahoma education needs. She switched from being a Republican to being a Democrat in 2022 and as a result, is the only Democratic statewide elected official in Oklahoma.

Incumbent governor Kevin Stitt is attempting to be reelected to be Oklahoma governor for his second term. Kevin Stitt is from the Cherokee nation in Oklahoma and graduated from Oklahoma State University with a degree in Accounting. He founded Gateway Mortgage Bank in 2000 and grew the company to over $20 billion in profits; he stepped down from being CEO/Chairman in 2018.


Joy Hofmeister won in the Democratic primaries against Constance Johnson with 61% of the vote. The primaries were not contested and results were expected.

Kevin Stitt won in the primaries with 69% of the vote against competitors Mark Sherwood and Joel Kintsel. Ervin Yen ran against Kevin Stitt in the primary after withdrawing from the Republican party. This result was expected.

Issues & controversies

Some major issues and controversies pertinent to the Oklahoma gubernatorial election include abortion, criminal-justice reform, vaccination-rights, tax reform and relief for lower-income earners in Oklahoma (predominantly Indigenous people and farmers), and tribal relations with the Cherokee Nation. The biggest issue of the race is Stitt’s proposal to increase funding for voucher-school programs and his education-spending which Hofmeister believes will destroy the public education system. Hofmeister believes that money would better be spent toward public-education spending and teacher-salaries.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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