Governors race

51.13Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Tina Kotek51.7%58%
Christine Drazan48.3%42%

About Oregon

Oregon is a state on the West Coast of the US that historically leans Democratic. The state is mainly split up into two geographically separate poltiical areas: the liberal cities in Willamette Valley vs the rest of the state which is conservative. Since most of the population is concentrated in the metropolitan areas, the state has liberal laws which allow assistive suicide, medical use of maurijuana, and strict environmental protections.


Tina Kotek (D)

Image of Tina Kotek Source: Ballotpedia

Christine Drazan (R)

Image of Christine Drazan Source: Ballotpedia

Tina Kotek was most recently a member of the Oregon House of Representatives, and left office on January 21, 2022 to focus on her gubernatorial campaign. She has formerly served as Oregon House Speaker from 2013 to 2022.

Christine Drazan was most recently a member of the Oregon House of Representatives, assuming office in 2019 and and leaving office on January 31, 2022. She was also the state House minority leader in 2019, but stepped down on November 30, 2021.


Candidate Tina Kotek easily won the Democratic primaries with 56%.

Candidate Chistine Drazan won the Republican primaries with 22.5%.

Issues & controversies

Both candidates promise to address homelessness. Kotek said that she would work to increase temporary and permanent housing, while Drazan plans to address homelessness by declaring a state of emergency and reducing regulations on housing. Both candidates also promise to address Oregon’s wildfires, education, and environment. Candidate Tina Kotek promises to address mental health by “expand[ing] inpatient and outpatient services for Oregonians experiencing a mental health and/or substance use crisis.” She also promises to increase economic opportunity by “ensur[ing] a successful roll-out of Oregon’s paid family and medical leave program.” She also supports access to abortion. Candidate Christine Drazan promises to “work to cut taxes on families and small businesses,” and “tear up Governor Kate Brown’s cap-and-trade executive order that would drive up already record high gas prices.” Drazan has criticized candidates Kotek and Johnson, claiming that “they helped Kate Brown push through a massive sales tax when we could least afford it, and our streets are a mess.” As part of her plan to restore government accountability, she plans to “fire Governor Kate Brown’s agency heads and appoint leadership that will be competent, transparent and responsive to the needs of the people of Oregon.”

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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