Governors race

55.70Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Josh Shapiro55.5%76%
Douglas V. Mastriano44.5%24%

About Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is the 5th most populated state containing significant cities such as Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Harrisburg, the state capital. A large proportion of the population is concentrated in the southeastern metropolitan area, where Philadelphia is. The population is estimated to be upwards of 13 million inhabitants according to the 2020 census, around 75% of which are white non-hispanic. Pennsylvania also has a high proportion, around 15.4%, of its population aged 65 or older. This places them at the 4th highest percentage in the nation. From 2014 data, approximately 50% of Pennsylvanians are Protestants and 25% Catholic. Finally, PA's GSP of around 840 billion places them at 6th in the country, although their per capita GSP would lower them to 24th. A large part of this booming economy is not only the large population, but Pennsylvania's history as one of the top energy producers in the nation. Finally, Pennsylvania is infamous as a swing state that plays a pivotal role in Presidential elections and the such.


Josh Shapiro (D)

Image of Josh Shapiro Source:

Doug Mastriano (R)

Image of Doug Mastriano Source: Matt Rourke

Josh Shapiro is the current People's Attorney General since 2017 and has served various other offices including State Representative, Chairman of the Board of Commissioners of Montgomery County, before his current presiding. He graduated at the University of Rochester before he started taking jobs in government all the while studying law school. He is best known for a fearless attitude in standing up for the people of Pennsylvania, regardless of who his opponent is.

Doug Mastriano is a retired Colonel of the military with several achievements and has served in the Pennsylvania State Senate representing the 33rd District since 2019. He has a PhD in History and 4 master's degrees in Strategy, Strategic Intelligence, Military Operations, and Airpower. Finally, he is an accomplished author including dozens of articles and several books, including the award-winning work "Alvin York: A New Biography of the Hero of the Argonne".


Josh Shapiro was uncontested in the Democratic primaries. He was shown an overwhelmingly large amount of funding and support from organizations and individuals alike, including the incumbent Tom Wolf, which may have contributed heavily to his lack of competition.

Doug Mastriano was dominant in the Republican primaries, beating out Lou Barletta, Bill McSwain, David White, and several others. Big topics of discussion included tax reform and gas usage. However, Mastriano was triumphant, partially due to former President Donald Trump's endorsement. Over the course of the primaries, more than half of the candidates withdrew their candidacy. Many issues arose surrounding Mastriano's chances of winning as a result of his involvement in the January 6th raid on the capital, but he pulled through with approximately double the points of the runner up, Lou Barletta.

Issues & controversies

One of the biggest contending issues between the two nominees is abortion. Mastriano has admonished abortion in the past, and has introduced legislation to the state that would ban abortion atfer 6 weeks, regardless of the concerns of the mother. On the other hand, Shapiro is a fervent defender of abortion and intends to prevent any limitations upon abortion in Pennsylvania. While Shapiro intends on increasing state funding for public education and selective skill training in classrooms, Mastriano intends to reduce state per student funding for education by nearly half, instead setting up a system where parents would have to partially fund their children’s education for them to receive more. Mastriano has denounced calls of climate change as being fake, instead opting for the increase in energy production. On the other hand, Shapiro has taken a more neutral stance, wishing to retain Pennsylvania’s position as a high energy producer while still attempting to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, Mastriano has been a long-standing opposer of gun regulation, going so far as to pursue permitless concealed carry on firearms, whereas Shapiro intends to crack down on guns.

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Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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