South Dakota

Governors race

40.17Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Jamie Smith38.8%2%
Kristi Noem61.2%98%

About South Dakota

South Dakota is a mostly rural state that has consistently voted Republican, with Republican presidential nominees carrying the state in the last 13 elections. The state government is also largely controlled by the Republican party. South Dakota is 87.4% white, and has a population of 895,376 as of 2021. 8.5% of residents are Native American. Currently the Republican party is dominant in South Dakota.


Jamie Smith (D)

Image of Jamie Smith Source: Ballotpedia

Kristi Noem (R)

Image of Kristi Noem Source: Office of the Governor, South Dakota

Jamie Smith currently represents the 15th district in the South Dakota House of Representatives, which covers parts of downtown Sioux Falls. Smith is campaigning on expanded healthcare access and support for agriculture jobs.

Kristi Noem is the first female governor of South Dakota, was elected in 2018 as an ally of Donald Trump after serving as the representative for South Dakota’s at-large congressional district since 2011. Her record in office includes a hands-off approach to pandemic response and strong support for former president Donald Trump’s claims of election fraud, and she is campaigning on support for agriculture, expanded broadband access, and improving childcare opportunities.


The Democratic primary for South Dakota was cancelled after the only other candidate, Barry Hulse, dropped out.

The incumbent Kristi Noem won the Republican primary for South Dakota by 44,737 votes over challenger Steven Haugaard.

Issues & controversies

Noem has committed to upholding South Dakota's abortion ban, which Smith has pledged to overturn.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

No polls to display.