Governors race

35.00Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Jason B. Martin36.0%6%
Bill Lee64.0%94%

About Tennessee

Tennessee is the 36th largest by area and the 16th most populous of the 50 states.


Jason Martin (D)

Image of Jason Martin Source: tennessean.com

Bill Lee (R)

Image of Bill Lee Source: tn.gov

Martin holds the opposite viewpoints to many of Lee’s opinions on issues. Unlike Gov. Lee supports the decriminalization of cannabis, higher investment in green energy and medicaid, and further gun regulation.

Is the current incumbent governor for Tennessee. In the 2020 election, Gov. Lee didn’t issue an endorsement for Trump - although he supported his nomination of Amy Coney Barrett and shares a number of his positions on controversial issues. On his website, one will find that he claims to have “passed the most pro-life legislation in the country.” He has supported capital punishment and since holding office, his state has executed seven people. Lee considers himself a social conservative - and puts emphasis on his Christian faith. Many of the positions he holds are that of a typical conservative today.


Jason Martin (D) who won in a competitive race with 39.4% of the votes, against JB Smiley Jr. who received 38.8% of the votes and Carnita Atwater who received 21.8% of the votes

Incumbent Bill Lee (R) who ran uncontested in the primaries. Despite being unopposed Bill Lee received 494,195 votes as opposed to a mere 101,221 votes for Jason Martin. The total number of votes for all democrats in the primary was 257,035

Issues & controversies

There isn’t much controversy going on here. In 2020, Bill Lee passed some controversial legislation that prevents transgender people from using the bathroom of their preferred identity. The topic of LGBTQ+ rights and the movement in support of it has become more prominent and grown since then - however the attitude of many republicans (Lee’s general voter base) has stayed the same, so it likely will have a minimal effect.

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Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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