Governors race

29.16Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Brenda Siegel38.2%6%
Phil Scott61.8%94%

About Vermont

Vermont is the second least-populous state in the US, located in the very northeastern corner with a border with Canada. Despite an extremely rural population, the state is known to vote Democrat for Senators and Governors, with the notable exception of the current Governor being a Republican. Unlike all other states, Vermont’s governors serve for only 2 years in a term. In recent years it has also typically support the Democratic party with the exception of its Republican governor. Over 90% of its 650,000 residents are white. 38% of its residents are college educated.


Brenda Siegel (D)

Image of Brenda Siegel Source: Ballotpedia

Phil Scott (R)

Image of Phil Scott Source: Ballotpedia

Brenda Siegel is a nonprofit executive who ran for Vermont governor in 2018 and touts her support of successfully passed state laws pertaining to minimum wage, medically assisted treatment, and housing infrastructure and access. She has campaigned on solving Vermont’s housing crisis, helping to stop the Opioid epidemic in the state, and vows to take bold climate action.

Phil Scott has been serving as governor since 2017 and has maintained one of the highest approval ratings for any state governor, even among Democrats. He is a self-described “Pro-choice Republican”, and has come out against Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020 as well.


Brenda Siegel ran unopposed in the democratic primary apart from write-ins.

Phil Scott has been the incumbent for the past five years, with no real challengers running against him in the Republican primary.

Issues & controversies

Criticisms have been thrown at local Vermont news for focusing on the more popular incumbent, Phil Scott, and not giving as much time to his opponent, Brenda Siegel, which has led to concern that the lopsided coverage is skewing the vote further to Phil Scott's end.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

No polls to display.