Governors race

49.96Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Tony Evers50.0%50%
Tim Michels50.0%50%

About Wisconsin

Wisconsin is a northern Mid-West state known for its dairy industry, particularly cheese. In recent years it has been a swing state, voting for Trump in 2016 by a slight margin and Biden in 2020 in a similarly close race.


Tony Evers (D)

Image of Tony Evers Source: National Governors Association

Tim Michels (R)

Image of Tim Michels Source: AP News

Tony Evers is a Democrat serving as the 46th governor of Wisconsin and is also an avid bobblehead collector. He is currently 70 years old and from 2009 to 2019 served as the Superintendent of Public Instruction for Wisconsin. He ran a successful campaign against the republican incumbent Scott Walker in order to be elected as Wisconsin governor in 2018.

Tim Michels is the Republican candidate for Wisconsin governor. He served in the US Army for 12 years as an infantry officer and obtained the rank of major. He also co-owns Michels Corporation, a construction company. He has faced criticism for using obscure LLCs to purchase his homes, yet is also an active philanthropist.


Tony Evers was the incumbent and won his primary completed uncontested.

The Republican primary was much closer with five candidates running. The two frontrunners were Tim Michels and Rebecca Kleefisch, receiving 47% and 42% of the vote respectively.

Issues & controversies

Tony Evers has campaigned on a platform of improving Wisconsin schools and infrastructure in general. He also wants to ensure access to health care and combat inflation. Meanwhile, Tim Michels’s campaign has mostly focused on his identity as a political outsider, but some of his issues have been limiting abortions, expanding the police force, and upset the current balance of Wisconsin politics through his position as an outsider.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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