Senate Forecast

The Democrats are favored to win the Senate

Updated 11/8/2022, 05:48 PM

Seat distribution

A range of scenarios of the seats that each party will win in our model's 1,000,000 simulations.

Republicans win in30.5% of our simulationsDemocrats win in69.5% of our simulationsMajority6260585654525052545658606264Republicans winDemocrats winWhen the two parties hold 50 seats each, control of the Senate is determined by the party of the vice president. In the 2022 election, Democrats will control the Senate if each party ends up holding 50 seats.

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.