Senate race

60.92Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Alex Padilla61.2%95%
Mark P. Meuser38.8%5%

About California

Spanning much of the west coast of the continental United States, California is the most populous state by far with about 40 million people. Famous for its diverse landscapes, Los Angeles, and Hollywood, about 35% of the population is white, and 40% of the population is Hispanic. California is a solid Democratic state.


Alex Padilla (D)

Image of Alex Padilla Source: Ballotpedia

Mark Meuser (R)

Image of Mark Meuser Source: Ballotpedia

Alex Padilla is a California senator. He assumed office on January 20, 2021 to fill the seat of former Senator Kamala Harris once she became Vice President. Prior to serving in the US Senate, he was California’s Secretary of State. He is endorsed by Speaker Nancy Pelosi and is an establishment candidate.

Mark Meuser is a career lawyer running for election to the US Senate to represent California. Previously, in 2018, he ran against Alex Padilla in California’s Secretary of State election. In 2012, he ran for election to California’s State Senate to represent District 7. He is endorsed by the California Republican Party.


California uses a jungle primary system to determine the top two candidates that face off in a runoff election in November. In a jungle primary, all candidates compete against each other regardless of party affiliation. Alex Padilla received the most votes with 54.1% while Mark Meuser was in a distant second with 14.9% of the vote.

Mark Meuser received the second highest number of votes in California’s jungle primary system.

Issues & controversies

Issues related to criminal justice reform, abortion rights, and the economy are important in this election. Each candidate aligns strongly with their respective party platforms.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.