Senate race

69.17Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Brian Schatz69.2%100%
Bob McDermott30.8%0%

About Hawaii

Hawaii is a group of volcanic islands in the central Pacific Ocean, becoming the 50th U.S. state in 1959. Hawaii has a strong economy, with diversified agriculture and manufacturing, and also serves as an important location for research and development in oceanography, geophysics, astronomy, and biomedicine. Of the 50 U.S. states, Hawaii is the 8th smallest in land area and 11th least populous, but ranks 13th in population density and is one of the country's most diverse states, serving as a unique melting pot of North American and East Asian cultures. Because of its large native population, Hawaii has voted strongly Democratic in all elections since 1960, except for two.


Brian E. Schatz (D)

Image of Brian E. Schatz Source: Ballotpedia

Bob McDermott (R)

Image of Bob McDermott Source: Ballotpedia

Brian Schatz has had a long career in politics, starting with membership of the Hawaii state house of representatives in 1998. He served in the Hawaii legislature until 2006. Between 2010 and 2012, he held the position of lieutenant governor of Hawaii, then was appointed to the US Senate upon the death of the former senator. Schatz was formally elected to be a Hawaiian senator in a special election in 2014, and has held office since.

Bob McDermott has represented Hawaii’s 40th congressional district in the Hawaii state legislature since 2012.


Schatz beat the other candidate (Tataii) by 87.4 percentage points.

One of 5 candidates, McDermott beat the second-highest scorer by 14.4 percentage points.

Issues & controversies

  • Gun Control: Schatz supports banning military-style weapons and universal background checks. McDermott believes nothing needs to be done.
  • Climate: Schatz believes investment in clean energy and cutting carbon pollution will help mitigate a climate crisis. McDermott uses clean energy, but does not think there will be a crisis in the future regarding climate change.
  • Red Hill: Red Hill is a military fuel storage facility. In 2021, two fuel leaks from the site contaminated the local water supply, affecting nearly 100,000 Hawaiians. On this issue, both candidates agree that the facility needs to be decommissioned.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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