Senate race

45.13Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Michael Franken45.2%24%
Chuck Grassley54.8%76%

About Iowa

Bordered by both the Mississippi River and the Missouri River, Iowa is home to over 3.15 million people. Approximately 89% of Iowa’s population are White, almost 4% are Black, and 2.5% are Asian, with the rest of the population being mixed or of other races. 92% of the state’s 25 year old and older population have graduated High School, and 29% of the state’s 25 year old and older population have a Bachelor’s degree or higher. A large percentage of the state is educated, contributing to the reason that Iowa has the highest literacy rate of any state.


Chuck Grassley (R)

Image of Chuck Grassley Source:

Michael Franken (D)

Image of Michael Franken Source: Forbes

The Republican incumbent, Chuck Grassley, was elected in 1981. He studied at the University of Northern Iowa and has held office since he was first elected. In 2019 he became the Senate’s president pro tempore.

The Democratic candidate, Michael Franken, is a retired US Navy Vice Admiral who graduated from academic institutions such as the Naval Postgraduate School’s College of Physics and the University of Virginia School of Executive Education.


Chuck Grassley won the Republican primary elections in 2022 with the endorsement of former president Donald Trump. Grassley beat his opponent, Jim Carlin, with a vote of 74% to 27%.

In the Democratic primary elections in 2022, Michael Franken took the win over Abby Finkenauer. Franken beat his opponent with a vote of 55% to 40%.

Issues & controversies

Chuck Grassley deals with inflation and the country’s national debt. Additionally, he supports stronger border security, police funding, and parents’ rights in their childrens’ education. Michael Franken supports gun control legislation, federal spending for economic growth, and greenhouse gas regulation. He is also pro choice for abortions.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.