Senate race

43.78Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Thomas McDermott43.3%22%
Todd Young56.7%78%

About Indiana

Indiana is a state located in the Midwest region of the United States of America. It is the 30th largest state by area, and the 17th most populous state. It is bordered by Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, and Kentucky, and also notably borders the Ohio and Wabash rivers and Lake Michigan. Indiana has the 19th highest GDP among states, but ranks 33rd in GDP per capita. Notable cities in Indiana include Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, and Bloomington. Indiana is home to the Indianapolis Colts and Indiana Pacers, and also hosts the Indy 500.


Thomas McDermott Jr. (D)

Image of Thomas McDermott Jr. Source:

Todd Young (R)

Image of Todd Young Source:

McDermott has seemingly come out of nowhere to oppose Young. Since 2004, McDermott has served as the mayor of Hammond, Indiana, a city of about 80,000 people. He placed second in the 2020 Democratic primary for Indiana’s 1st congressional seat before deciding to run against Young.

Young is a well-established candidate, having served as a staffer for different campaigns beginning in the early 2000s. From 2007 to 2010, he served as Assistant Deputy Prosecutor for Orange County, Indiana. His true political career began in 2010, when he successfully ran for the House seat for Indiana’s 9th district, receiving a variety of endorsements, including that of former Vice President Dan Quayle. During his tenure as a House representative, he sponsored legislation such as the Fairness for American Families Act and the Save American Workers Act of 2013. In a 2013 rating by National Journal, Young was regarded as a relatively moderate conservative (was given a 69% conservative and 31% liberal ranking). In 2016, instead of running for another House term, Young decided to run for the Senate seat previously held by the retiring Dan Coats (R), which he won. In the first session of the 115th Congress, Young was ranked the 9th most bipartisan senator.


McDermott ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Young ran unopposed in the Republican primary.

Issues & controversies

The Todd Young campaign, confident in his victory regardless of circumstances, has essentially decided to ignore McDermott altogether. In response, McDermott, who has openly challenged Young to a debate in each of Indiana’s nine districts, has stated “He’s weak, he’s scared, and he doesn’t want to talk to regular Ma and Pa Hoosier” and “Todd Young isn’t going to debate me. He’s a weasel. He’s a wimp.”

There are, however, a few key issues that could play into the election. For one, Indiana’s near-full ban of abortion (which Young supports) following the Roe v. Wade decision has dropped Young a couple of points in the polls, indicating a potential swing in McDermott’s favor. In addition to reproductive rights, McDermott is running on a platform of health care reform and supporting veterans and small businesses; Young claims to strive for all of these as well. Also on Young’s platform is combating inflation, securing the border, holding the CCP accountable, conforming constitutionalist judges, supporting law enforcement, and protecting the second amendment.

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Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.