Senate race

38.17Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Mark R. Holland39.9%8%
Jerry Moran60.1%92%

About Kansas

Kansas, also known as the Sunflower State, is located in the Midwest and has population of almost 3 million people. Of the fifty states, it is the 36th most populous. The economy of Kansas relies on agriculture -- mainly wheat, corn, sorghum, and soybeans. This state is predominantly white, with 86% of the population identifying this way. It is comprised of 105 counties and is strongly Republican.


Mark Holland (D)

Image of Mark Kelly Source: Ballotpedia.org

Jerry Moran (R)

Image of Jerry Moran Source: Ballotpedia.org

Holland, a moderate running on a platform of bringing outside common sense to DC, was mayor of Kansas City from 2013 to 2017.

Moran has been in the Senate since 2010, and the House since 1996. Moran is a political conservative, running on a platform of prioritizing Kansas and furthering socially conservative goals, such as limiting abortion and border control.


Holland barely scraped out in a highly contested primary, winning with just 38% of the vote against 5 other candidates

Moran did not face any serious primary challengers, and won with a 60% margin over the only other candidate.

Issues & controversies

National issues have been driving the campaign - voters seem to be thinking about things like the January 6th commission, abortion rights (which Kansas voters recently upheld by an 18 point margin in a special election), and women’s rights.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.