Senate race

59.60Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Chris Van Hollen59.6%95%
Chris Chaffee40.4%5%

About Maryland

Maryland is a Mid-Atlantic bordering both the Atlantic Ocean and Chespeake Bay. In 2021, 49% of residents of Maryland identified as White/non-hispanic. 11.1% identified as Hispanic/Latino, 30.2% identified as Black, 6.8% identified as Asian, 0.2% as Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, and 2.6% as multiracial. As for political leanings, 55% identified as Democratic/Democratic leaning, 31% identified as Republican/Republican leaning, and 14% identified as no leaning.


Chris Van Hollen (D)

Image of Chris Van Hollen Source: Wikipedia

Chris Chafee (R)

Image of Chris Chafee Source: Ballotpedia

Democratic candidate Chris Van Hollen endorses Hillary Clinton and voted to impeach Donald Trump. Van Hollen previously served as the representative for Maryland's 8th district from 2003 to 2017.

Republican Chris Chafee is a relatively new candidate on the senate stage. Although he did win the primary in 2014 for the 5th district of Maryland, he lost the general election. Despite continuing to run, he has not found success until this year’s senate primary.


Van Hollen ran as an incumbent in the Democratic primaries against one other candidate and won by a large margin.

The Republican primaries were more distributed, with ten candidates running and no incumbents. Chafee won by a significant margin, receiving nearly twice the votes of the candidate in second place.

Issues & controversies

Van Hollen’s campaign focuses on recovery from the effects of COVID-19, improving educational and workforce opportunities, and combating gun violence, while Chafee is an advocate for second amendment rights and is against abortion.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

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