Senate race

49.07Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Catherine C. Masto49.1%45%
Adam P. Laxalt50.9%55%

About Nevada

Nevada has a population of 2,972,382 and covers 109,859 square miles. Nevada has a high proportion of White and Hispanic/Lantios with nearly 65.6% and 28.7% respectively. Around 86.7% of Nevada's population has graduated high school and 24.7% college.


Catherine Cortez Masto (D)

Image of Catherine Cortez Masto Source: Wikipedia

Adam Laxalt (R)

Image of Adam Laxalt Source: Wikipedia

Masto, the incumbent, is running for her second term as senator. Previously, she was Nevada's 32nd attorney general for 8 years. She is the average democrat, and has voted in line with Biden’s stated position 95.5% of the time.

Laxalt, the republican challenger, was Nevada’s 33rd attorney general from 2015 to 2019. He unsuccessfully ran for Governor of Nevada in 2018, losing to Democrat Steve Sisolak. He was the co-chairman of Trump’s 2020 reelection campaign in Nevada, and endorsed Trump’s claim of widespread election fraud across the country.


The democratic primary was uneventful, as Masto won with more than 90% of the vote.

Laxalt won the republican primaries with 56% of the vote, while the second most popular candidate only received 34%. The previous democratic senator held their seat from 1987 to 2017.

Issues & controversies

Masto has made abortion rights a prominent topic in this race, as she has often criticized Laxalt’s opinions on the issue. On the other hand, Laxalt is known for attacking Masto’s continued support for Biden’s economic policies, which he believes is leading to higher inflation.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.