South Carolina

Senate race

40.66Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Krystle Matthews41.5%6%
Tim Scott58.5%94%

About South Carolina

South Carolina is historically a Republican-voting state. With a population of 5.1 million, South Carolina is the 23rd most populous state and the state with the eigth highest percentage of the population that is black at 27 percent. 67 percent of the state is white, and the state has historically been solidly conservative. There are about 3.3 million registered voters in South Carolina, most of them being older citizens.


Krystle Matthews (D)

Image of Krystle Matthews Source: Ballotpedia

Tim Scott (R)

Image of Tim Scott Source: Ballotpedia

Krystle Matthews (D) is the challenger. She has been a State Representative of District 117 since November 12, 2018.

Tim Scott (R), the incumbent, is Trump endorsed. He has been in office since January 2, 2013.


In the initial Democratic primary election, Matthews won 33.2% of the vote, making her the 2nd of 2 Democrats to race in a runoff. The other two candidates had 34.7% and 32.1% of the vote, so she barely made it to the runoff. She won the runoff with 56.0% of the vote.

The Republican primary election was canceled, meaning incumbent Tim Scott advanced.

Issues & controversies

Krystle Matthews (D): Matthews believes that young adults, minorities, women, and working families are the backbone of our state. She has been a champion for women and girls, veteran’s issues, economic development, and infrastructure.

Tim Scott (R): Scott is strongly pro-life and supports the Child Interstate Abortion Notification Act, Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act, and the No Taxpayer Funding for Abortion Act. He believes that the government has been overreaching into the lives of many U.S. citizens and vows not to do so to his people.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.