Senate race

66.11Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Peter Welch62.8%98%
Gerald Malloy37.2%2%

About Vermont

Vermont is the second least-populous state in the US, located in the very northeastern corner with a border with Canada. Despite an extremely rural population, the state is known to vote Democrat for Senators and Governors, with the notable exception of the current Governor being a Republican. Unlike all other states, Vermont’s governors serve for only 2 years in a term. In recent years it has also typically support the Democratic party with the exception of its Republican governor. Over 90% of its 650,000 residents are white. 38% of its residents are college educated.


Peter Welch (D)

Image of Peter Welch Source: Peter Welch for Vermont

Gerald Malloy (R)

Image of Gerald Malloy Source: WAMC

Peter Welch was first elected as a Vermont's at-large representative in 2006 and has won every election since. He is running for a Senate seat in 2022 with the retirement of Democrat Senator Patrick Leahy. He has touted his bipartisanship, notably voting against direct confrontation with ISIL and impeaching former President Bush in favor of ending the Iraq War. He voted in 2020 to impeach former President Donald Trump.

Gerald Malloy was born in Boston, Massachusetts, and currently lives in Vermont. He is running as the Republican candidate for this Vermont Senate seat. He is a West Point graduate and has served over 22 years in the Active army. He has also worked as a business executive. He campaigns on the promise of limiting the national debt and gaining energy independence, as well advancing military technology.


Peter Welch had a relatively uncontested primary, receiving almost 90% of the vote. This is after incumbent Patrick Leahy decided to retire instead of seeking reelection.

The Republican primary was significantly more contested. Gerald Malloy only won with 43% of the vote, beating out the second place Christan Nolan who had 38% of the vote.

Issues & controversies

Peter Welch’s major campaign issues include increasing availability to healthcare for all Americans, increasing renewable energy to combat climate change, and enacting gun safety reforms. Gerald Malloy, on the other hand, wants to protect people’s rights to guns while also increasing national defense by giving more resources to law enforcement. He also wants to limit congressional spending and the national debt.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.