Senate race

52.35Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Patty Murray52.8%64%
Tiffany Smiley47.2%36%

About Washington

At the northwestern corner of the continental United States, Washington is known for its rainy weather, hydroelectric power production, breathtaking nature, and big cities like Seattle. About 66% of the population is white and 38% have college degrees. It used to elect many Republicans, but it is now known as one of the most solid Democratic states.


Patty Murray (D)

Image of Patty Murray Source: govtrack.us

Tiffany Smiley (R)

Image of Tiffany Smiley Source: smileyforwashington.com

Patty Murray is a 30 year incumbent U.S. Senator. Previously, Murray served in the Washington State Senate from 1989 to 1993. In 1992, Murray was elected into the U.S. Senate, becoming Washington’s first female U.S. Senator. As a Senator, Murray has been a part of party leadership since 2001, having served on multiple Democratic committees. She is currently the sixth most senior member of the Senate.

Tiffany Smiley grew up in rural Washington and was a triage nurse until her husband was injured while serving in Iraq. Her platform is centered around middle-class families and veterans as well as women in business. She is against federal encroachment, does not support career politicians, and is anti-bureaucracy.


Washington state's primaries are non-partisan, meaning that all candidates run together. The top candidate from each party wins the primaries. Patty Murray, the Democratic incumbent, won the primaries with 54.0% of the votes.

Washington state's primaries are non-partisan, meaning that all candidates run together. The top candidate from each party wins the primaries. Tiffany Smiley came second in the primaries, with 32.0% of the votes.

Issues & controversies

Murray strongly advocates for working families, abortion rights, and is strongly against former President Donald Trump. During the pandemic, Murray’s work has largely focused on lowering everyday costs for middle class families in Washington and pushing for major corporations to “pay their fair share.” As a five-term incumbent, Murray is considered a reliable Democrat vote in Congress.

Smiley now uses a slogan of being the “New Mom in Town” -- a reference to Murray’s original campaign slogan in 1992 as the “Mom in Tennis Shoes.” Given that Washington has consistently been a blue state for decades, Smiley has taken on a more moderate-Republican position. She does not support abortion but does not want a federal ban on it. She is not officially backed by Trump, but she has met with Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell before. While she states that Biden did win the 2020 presidential elections, she has voiced concerns over the integrity of the election and has called for the courts to “give all evidence of voter fraud a fair hearing.” As the discourse over abortion has risen over the past few months, Smiley’s position is that she is pro-life but does not support a federal abortion ban.

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.