Senate race

48.52Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
Mandela Barnes48.7%41%
Ron Johnson51.3%59%

About Wisconsin

Wisconsin is a midwestern U.S. state with coastlines on 2 Great Lakes (Michigan and Superior) and an interior of forests and farms.


Mandela Barnes (D)

Image of Mandela Barnes Source: Wikipedia

Ron Johnson (R)

Image of Ron Johnson Source: Britannica

Mandela Barnes is the lieutenant governor of Wisconsin since 2019. He was a state representative for the 11th District from 2013 to 2017; he is also the first African American to serve as Wisconsin's lieutenant governor.

Ron Johnson is an American accountant, businessman, and politician. He was first elected to the US Senate in 2010 and was reelected in 2016. Before entering politics, he was the CEO of a polyester and plastics manufacturer. He is endorsed by Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States, and Nikki Haley, the former US Ambassador to the United Nations.


Mandela Barnes won the Democratic primary with 77.8% of the vote with 389,942 votes.

Ron Johnson won the Republican primaries with 83.7% vote with 563,227 votes.

Issues & controversies

Inflation is the number one concern among voters. Johnson believes the problem is high government spending. Lt. Gov. Barnes said some targeted tax changes are needed. Abortion is also a main issue being discussed by voters. Barnes is calling for a new federal law allowing access to abortion; he wants to end the filibuster in the Senate. Johnson opposes abortion except in cases of rape, incest, or if the life of the mother is at risk. He said individual states should use referendums to decide if abortion should be allowed. Johnson and Barnes are also political polar opposites with very different bases of support.

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Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.


Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.