California 55 votes
Biden is favored to win
|Candidate||Predicted Vote %||Win Prob.|
Ah, California, our most populous state, as well as one of the most progressive. Its conservative roots as the home of Ronald Reagan can still be glimpsed in its Republican-leaning inland regions, but it is now solidly liberal thanks to its vast urban population, high proportion of college-educated whites, and large number of naturalized citizens. In fact, a quarter of the US's immigrants live in California. Homelessness and affordable housing are big issues in California due to the state's high property values, while climate change is also a pressing concern due to wildfires and water shortages.
Chance of winning over time
We run our model at least once a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.