Kentucky 8 votes
Trump is favored to win
|Candidate||Predicted Vote %||Win Prob.|
Despite Governor Andy Beshear's victory over incumbent Matt Bevin in 2018, Kentucky has been a reliable Republican stronghold for years. In this election, Democrats will look to turn out voters in the Louisville area while Republicans will appeal to their rural base. Mitch McConnell's reelection campaign has drawn national attention and fundraising but is unlikely to flip. McConnell's challenger, Amy McGrath, narrowly escaped a contested primary in which social unrest following the deaths of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor redefined the race. The handling of Taylor's killing by Louisville Police has drawn scrutiny and national interest. It is unclear how it will impact the upcoming election. Fun fact: Kentucky is the birthplace of the Post-It Note.
Chance of winning over time
We run our model at least once a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.