MN-03 Minnesota's 3rd District


Predicted Vote %

Predicted Win %

Dean Phillips



Erik Paulsen



District Profile Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2018, 11:47 a.m.

The 3rd congressional district reaches the north, south, and west part of Minneapolis. There is a mix of lower income and high income cities. The population is 80% White and around 710,000 people. The two candidates running are Dean Phillips (D) and Erik Paulsen (R). Dean Phillips was the CEO of Phillips Distilling Company  and helped build the gelato company, Talenti. Phillips’ issues focus on combating climate change, preventing gun violence, and providing healthcare for all Americans. Erik Paulsen served his fifth term representing the 3rd congressional district and is a member of the Ways and Means Committee. He is also a Chairman of the Joint Economic Committee. Paulsen is a major advocate for combating sex trafficking and believes strongly in an open market. Although Republican Erik Paulsen has been in office since 2008, the Democratic candidate won the presidential election in 2008, 2012, and 2016. Barack Obama won 52% and 50% of the vote in 2008 and 2012, respectively, and Clinton won with 51% of the vote with 2016.

District Updates and Posts

MN-03: Polls in our Model

Sep. 24 - 29SurveyUSA607 LVPhillips 49%Paulsen 44%
Sep. 17 - 18Public Policy Polling538 VPhillips 52%Paulsen 39%
Sep. 7 - 9Siena College/New York Times500 LVPhillips 51%Paulsen 42%
Feb. 12 - 13Public Policy Polling664 LVPhillips 46%Paulsen 43%
Nov. 9 - 10Public Policy Polling542 LVPhillips 46%Paulsen 42%